The One Metric That Matters in BSF Farming (And Why No One Talks About It)
Over the past year, I’ve travelled across 14 countries and visited over 50 black soldier fly (BSF) companies as part of my Nuffield Farming Scholarship. From the soybean fields of Brazil to modular farms in Kenya to high-tech factories in Denmark — I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the baffling.
This blog series distills what I’ve learnt into practical, occasionally blunt, insights that I hope will help others avoid the common pitfalls of this industry and build something better. If you missed the first post, check out:
👉 The 5 Myths Holding the BSF Industry Back
Today, we focus on something simple. Something almost too simple. The one number the industry should tattoo on its forehead: BSVR.
Wait, what’s BSVR?
BSVR stands for Blended Substitute Value Ratio. Credit where it’s due — this comes from Michael Badeski, whose report offers a rare, no-nonsense look at insect farming economics.
Investment Insights For the Insect Industry
Michael Badeski
But let’s be honest. BSVR is just a posh way of saying “profit”. Although, maybe we do need to overcomplicate the word “profit” — as this may be the way to draw attention from a few more companies.
Here’s the formula:
BSVR = total revenue / total cost
That includes all revenue streams — protein, oil, frass, gate fees, carbon credits — and all production costs. Feedstock, labour, energy, depreciation, transport… the works.
A BSVR above 1 means you're making money.
Below 1? You're not.
Simple. Powerful. And frankly, ignored far too often.
*note on carbon credits, there is no reason why BSF can claim carbon credits once the right methodology is written. But, for now, there don't seem to be any credible schemes available yet.
Why BSVR matters more than ever
In Badeski’s model, a BSF facility under ideal conditions — with affordable waste, multiple revenue streams, and efficient processes — could hit a BSVR of 1.41.
That’s without subsidies. Without genetic selection. Without next-gen tech. That’s just the baseline potential of BSF. The baseline potential turns a profit. Huh?
Let that sink in.
This is an industry that, at its starting point, can already be profitable. That’s not something most agricultural systems can claim.
Compare that with chickens. In the 1950s, broilers took 70 days to reach 1.5kg. Today, it’s less than half that time — thanks to decades of feed formulation, genetic improvement, and infrastructure investment.
BSF farming hasn’t had that yet. We’re still figuring out how to load a crate. So if we already have a profitable model on paper — before the tech, before the breeding, before the scale — imagine where we could be in 10 years.
What’s holding us back?
Not the insects, but us.
Specifically:
Regulation that blocks access to low-cost feedstocks or restricts end uses.
Fragmented infrastructure as a result simply of a newborn industry.
Real life demand that has been developed in line with supply growth.
These are all human-made creases. And that’s good news — because we can iron them out. With the right regulatory reform, sensible collaboration, and shared infrastructure, this industry could lower its costs, grow demand honestly, and develop into a mature, viable sector within the next 5–10 years.
So what now?
Let’s stop anchoring our expectations to the bankruptcies of yesterday that happened because of errors, going too early or scaling too quickly. It's worth mentioning that we're at the hard-but-valuable stage of the cycle, not at the end of the road - also known as the "trough of disillusionment". The future doesn’t have to follow the same script as those high-profile collapses.
If we make BSVR our north star, we give ourselves a tool to stay grounded — and to grow. Not just to build a BSF business that looks good in a deck, but one that actually works. Because this industry can stand on its own two feet. It just needs the right runway.
Coming next…
In the next blog, I’ll cover:
Why the UK can’t compete right now — and what needs to change
What international models are doing differently
How small reforms could unlock a big future
Until then, if you’re building or investing in this space:
Ask for the BSVR. And if it’s not above 1… ask why.
